MEMPHIS, Tenn. — February 11, 2021 — U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 11.5 million cotton acres this spring, down 5.2 p.c from 2020 (primarily based on USDA’s February 2021 estimate), in accordance with the Nationwide Cotton Council’s fortieth Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey (see desk under).
Upland cotton intentions are 11.3 million acres, down 4.9 p.c from 2020, whereas extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 161,000 acres symbolize a 20.7 p.c decline. The detailed survey outcomes have been introduced in the course of the 2021 Nationwide Cotton Council Annual Assembly Digital Reside-Stream Occasion.
Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC’s vp, Economics & Coverage Evaluation, stated, “Planted acreage is simply one of many elements that can decide provides of cotton and cottonseed. Finally, climate and agronomic circumstances are among the many elements that play a major position in figuring out crop dimension.”
She stated that with abandonment assumed at 18.1 p.c for america, Cotton Belt harvested space totals 9.4 million acres. Utilizing a mean U.S. yield per harvested acre of 855 kilos generates a cotton crop of 16.7 million bales, with 16.3 million upland bales and 431,000 ELS bales.
The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2020 to producers throughout the 17-state Cotton Belt, requested producers for the variety of acres dedicated to cotton and different crops in 2020 and the acres deliberate for the approaching season. Survey responses have been collected by way of mid-January.
Campiche famous, “Historical past has proven that U.S. farmers reply to relative costs when making planting choices. Relative to the typical futures costs in the course of the first quarter of 2020, costs of all commodities have been buying and selling greater. For the 2021 crop yr, corn, soybeans, wheat, and sorghum are anticipated to offer extra competitors for cotton acres.”
Southeast respondents point out a 4.2 p.c lower within the area’s upland space to 2.3 million acres. In Alabama, the survey responses point out a 9.3 p.c lower in cotton acreage and will increase in corn, wheat, and soybeans. In Florida, respondents indicated barely much less cotton and extra corn and peanuts. In Georgia, cotton acreage is anticipated to say no by 8.6 p.c as growers count on to plant extra corn, wheat, soybeans, and peanuts. In North Carolina and South Carolina, growers count on to extend cotton acreage by 13.4 p.c and a couple of.6 p.c, respectively. Cotton acreage is anticipated to say no by 10.0 p.c p.c in Virginia whereas a rise in corn, soybeans, and ‘different crops’ is anticipated.
Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.7 million acres, a decline of three.7 p.c from the earlier yr. Throughout the area, all states besides Missouri intend to lower cotton acreage. Arkansas producers intend to plant 6.8 p.c much less cotton acreage and enhance corn, wheat, and soybeans. Louisiana producers count on to plant 5.6 p.c much less cotton acreage in 2021 and plant extra corn, wheat and soybeans. In Mississippi, cotton acreage is anticipated to lower by 1.6 p.c whereas corn, wheat, and soybean acreage is anticipated to extend. Missouri growers count on to extend cotton acres by 1.2 p.c, planting extra corn and fewer soybeans. In Tennessee, cotton acreage is anticipated to say no by 6.1 p.c as land shifts to corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Southwest growers intend to plant 7.1 million cotton acres, a 5.5 p.c decline. In Kansas, producers intend to plant 0.9 p.c extra cotton acres and fewer corn, wheat, and soybeans. In Oklahoma, growers count on to plant 5.2 p.c much less cotton and extra wheat. Texas acreage is anticipated to say no by 5.7 p.c whereas corn, wheat, and sorghum acreage is anticipated to extend.
Far West producers expect to plant 197,000 upland cotton acres, a 2.5 p.c lower from 2020. Cotton acreage is anticipated to lower in Arizona and California and enhance barely in New Mexico.
ELS acreage is anticipated to say no by 26.7 p.c in California and 10.5 p.c in Texas because of issues about water availability. A slight enhance is anticipated in Arizona, whereas New Mexico acreage is anticipated to stay unchanged from 2020.
In recent times, U.S. cotton producers have struggled with unstable cotton costs, excessive manufacturing prices and climate points. Within the face of very tight margins, many producers proceed to face troublesome financial circumstances heading into 2021.
NCC delegates have been reminded the expectations are a snapshot of intentions primarily based on market circumstances at survey time with precise plantings influenced by altering market circumstances and climate.
Potential 2021 U.S. Cotton Space
|2020 Precise (Thou.) 1/||2021 Meant (Thou.) 2/||% Change|
Posted February 16, 2021
Supply: Nationwide Cotton Council